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Joel Ross×
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The Slowdown Goes On

As the weeks move on, occupancy continues to be negative as it has for most of the year. Recent numbers show a decline of 1.5%, and revenue per available room continues well below the levels projected

The Coming Bubble Could be Ugly

While revenue per available room exceeded what I predicted in 2012, it was primarily because some of what lies ahead is slower to arrive than I had thought.

Dr. Doom: Effects of the Downgrade on the Hotel Industry

A lot of people like to call me Dr. Doom for all of my cautious columns during the past year or so. Well, I really am not so doomsday (even now), but I think now you see the black swans that I have been forecasting have come home to roost and they are swarming and splattering everyone.

The interest rate yield curve

The yield curve is the plot of the rates as you go out by maturity. The left side is the short rates (i.e.

ArticleHNHotelNewsNow...
Lending - with careful underwriting - is back

While there has been a new start to CMBS lending and hotel lending in general, do not get lulled into believing it is all sunny and you can easily refinance at 5% or less.

Debt yield, not appraised value, matters

We used to use debt service coverage ratio to measure the risk of a loan and to size the loan proceeds.

ArticleHNHotelNewsNow...
6 reasons why ADR might be slow to rise

I have made a major issue of what metrics should be looked at by hotel industry prognosticators, and the need to look at a wide variety of things all over the world to really try to get a good sense of where we are headed.

Follow the money

I have said several times in articles and panels, “follow the money.” The industry prognosticators missed the entire downturn because they were not paying attention to the capital markets that really drive the economy.

Industry uses wrong metrics to project RevPAR

The prognosticators for the industry completely missed the worst decline in revenue per available room in history and the entire economic collapse.