Joel Ross is principal of Citadel Realty Advisors, successor to Ross Properties, the investment banking and real estate financing firm he launched in 1981. A Wharton School graduate, Ross began his career on Wall Street as an investment banker in 1965.
As the weeks move on, occupancy continues to be negative as it has for most of the year. Recent numbers show a decline of 1.5%, and revenue per available room continues well below the levels projected
A lot of people like to call me Dr. Doom for all of my cautious columns during the past year or so. Well, I really am not so doomsday (even now), but I think now you see the black swans that I have been forecasting have come home to roost and they are swarming and splattering everyone.
I have made a major issue of what metrics should be looked at by hotel industry prognosticators, and the need to look at a wide variety of things all over the world to really try to get a good sense of where we are headed.
The prognosticators for the industry completely missed the worst decline in revenue per available room in history and the entire economic collapse. Even as late as 2008 at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit and the New York University International Hospitality Investment Conference, they were still predicting upward movement in RevPAR and hotel values.